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CORN FUTURES FOR 2016

As of this week, corn price per bushel for the quarter ending December 16, 2016 is at $3.53.

 

After the October 12th “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report was released by the USDA, corn futures faced a key reversal down after lower-than-expected harvest projections, however, rallied and closed the same week 3.5 cents higher: part and parcel with the frequent fake-outs in predicting corn futures this year.

 

 

CORN PRICE PATTERNS

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Sustained high output projections and high stock levels have characterized the market for the past few years. However, corn acreage has been shrinking, giving way to increased soybean cultivation.At the outset of 2016, corn futures had fallen in the three previous years. However, their 9.6% decline in value was not as dramatic as the 14.5% and 20% losses in the soybean and wheat futures markets, respectively.



DateCorn price
Oct. 12 $6.78 per bushel
Oct. 13 $4.63 per bushel
Oct. 14 3.57 per bushel
Oct. 15 3.67 per bushel
Oct. 16 3.39 per bushel


 

DEMAND

EXPORTS

 

Record exports from the US market are expected, owing partly to poor growing conditions in South America last season.

 

ETHANOL

 

Moderately increased ethanol demand in the wake of uncertain oil and gas economies has also impacted corn price per bushel this quarter.

 

HARVEST

 

A somewhat cool and wet start to the harvest season in the US corn belt moderately influenced speculation, but cleared up with higher-than-average seasonal temperatures.

 

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FEED DEMAND

 

In general, steadily-recovering feed demand has come as a surprise to some forecasters, but has affected corn price per bushel significantly.

 

WHEAT AND FEED DEMAND

 

In August, wheat prices hit ten-year lows, down 71% from 2008’s shortage, thanks to a bumper crop resulting from good weather. Production was forecasted to outpace demand by 10 million tonnes. Earlier in the year it was projected that animal feed demand for corn would switch over to wheat (now selling at under $4 a bushel), but despite the “higher protein” premium, the conversion hasn’t been as stark as anticipated.

 

 

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